Sunspot activity reaches record low
in Earth and Space Science, The Water Cycle, Weather and Climate, and The Universe
Where, oh where, have my sunspots gone?: Sunspot activity tied a record low of zero in August, 2008.
Courtesy NASA
For the first time in almost a century, the Sun has a spotless record. There were no observed sunspots in August. None. Zero. Zip. Can't get a record any lower than that. That's the first time this has happened since 1913.
That's before commercial radio. Before talking movies. Before World War I. Why, it's almost as long as since the last time the Cubs won the World Series.
Now, that's a long time!
Plus, as we've discussed before, the Sun has been unusually quiet of late. Sunspots generally go through an 11-year cycle, and we're a couple years late for the next rise in activity.
But, you are no doubt wondering, what does this mean to me, the Average Joe? (Assuming your name is indeed "Average Joe," which would be pretty remarkable and, ironically, not average.) Well, sunspots seem to be tied to weather. Three times, since astronomers began observing suspots, has the Sun fallen silent, and each time coincides with significant drops in global temperatures. One such dip, from roughly 1600 to 1750, was so severe it is known as "The Little Ice Age."
Are we heading into another glacial period? Much too soon to tell. But if you start feeling chilly, keep your eye on the Sun. Astronomers will be doing the same.
(NOTE FOR THE METAPHORCALLY-IMPAIRED: That was meant figuratively. Do not look directly at the Sun with your naked eye. You'll burn out your retina.)
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Hurricane Gustav: The dangerous storm is expected to make landfall Monday morning.
Courtesy NOAAAs Hurricane Gustav is gaining strength barreling across the Gulf of Mexico and charging toward the US coastline, authorities have ordered mandatory evacuation of citizens in the Gulf Coast region.
New Orleans mayor Ray Nagin made a fear-laden plea that all citizens of the Big Easy take the order very seriously. The mayor stated that storm surges as high as 18-24 feet are possible from Gustav and warned that there would be no services or aid available to anyone who decides to ignore the evacuation order. Some parts of New Orleans are still recovering from devastation wrought by Hurricane Katrina three years ago.
Gustav started as a tropical storm earlier this week (Aug. 25), was upgraded to a hurricane as it moved over Haiti. It hit Cuba on August 30 as a Category 4 hurricane. Last night Gustav’s designation was lowered back to a Category 3 hurricane but is expected to gain power as it crosses the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and makes landfall along the US coastline sometime tomorrow morning.
Despite being over 1000 miles away, Hurricane Gustav is having an effect on us here in the Twin Cities. The Republican National Convention starts tomorrow in St. Paul, and President Bush and Vice-president Cheney have canceled appearances there due to Gustav’s potential as a national emergency.
Gustav graphic loop from the NOAA
Video of Mayor Nagin orders evacuation
NOAA’s National Hurricane Center site
CNN report
Is it hot in here, or is it just me.: Research and debate continues on global warming. Image by ! "S4N7Y" !
(With the Republican National Convention literally across the street, the Science Museum of Minnesota will be closed starting Friday, August 29. But Science Buzz marches on! To honor our convention guests, I’ll be posting entries focusing on issues where science and politics overlap. Hopefully this will spur some discussion. Or at least tick some people off.)
Let’s start with a nice, safe topic. Like global warming. Because Lord knows, we haven’t discussed that enough.
We recently passed an important milestone in the climate change debate: it was 20 years ago this summer that global warming became a political issue in America, thanks to NASA’s Jim Hansen testifying before Congress. (Some wags have noted that the global temperature in June 2008 was cooler than in June 1988--but that’s weather, not climate.)
There was a dust-up recently concerning the American Physical Society, a leading scientific organization. One of its units, the APS Forum, published a paper by Christopher Monckton arguing that carbon’s impact on climate has been greatly overstated. The Forum intends to publish additional papers in its journal, Physics and Society, as part of a public debate on global warming science.
Some in the news media inaccurately reported that the APS itself had reversed its stance on global warming. This was not the case—the society as a whole maintains that human activity is the main cause of recent climate change. The journal is put out by APS Forum, which is just one of 19 units within the larger organization. But at least they are willing to have the debate.
Meanwhile, Australian astronomer Ian Wilson is predicting global cooling. His research finds that the main driver of Earth’s climate is the Sun’s activity, and that has been decreasing of late.
5-Day Track Forecast Cone: 5-Day Track Forecast Cone: The black line and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated.
Courtesy NOAATropical storm Gustav is nearing hurricane strength as it is about to hit Jamica on its way to the Gulf Coast. Gustav has already been responsible for 23 deaths in Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
After striking Haiti as a Category One hurricane on Tuesday Gustav weakened to a tropical storm but is gathering strength again.
Satellite image of Gustav
Courtesy NOAAAs the storm approaches the Gulf Coast is it possible it could make landfall near New Orleans. Current predictions place it just to the east, but folks in New Orleans are bracing for it all the same. Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal declared a state of emergency yesterday and announced plans to begin evacuating coastal areas. Forecasters warned that the average error in landfall predictions at this point is about 300 miles, meaning Gustav could hit anywhere from southern Texas to the Florida panhandle.
Oil prices rose as a result of the possible impact the storm could have on oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico. Some oil companies have already been evacuating crews from oil rigs.
Cow pointing north: Maybe THIS is why you always see animals on weather vanes
Courtesy Leo ReynoldsResearchers in Germany used Google Earth to examine hundreds of aerial images of cattle herds at rest and found that 2 out of 3 cows tended to align their bodies north-south. It seems that no one has really ever noticed this before, which is a little shocking. On the other hand it's nice to know that science still has some basic observations left to be made.
At first I was a bit skeptical. As a kid I'd heard that you could tell if it was going to rain depending on whether cows were laying down or not, which is a silly tale for sure...so maybe this was a similar situation? How would cows sense the Earth's magnetic field anyways? Actually, lots of animals can sense the earth's magnetic field:
- Bacteria - Small strings of magnetite in bacteria, called magnetosomes, have actually been shown to rotate to align with the Earth's magnetic field.
- Birds - One group of researchers found chemicals called cryptochromes in the eyes of some birds. These chemicals change in the presence of a magnetic field and may help the birds see the north-south axis as they fly.
- Sharks - Sharks have receptors in their brains that help them perceive the magnetic field. When sharks swim in tanks they normally swim around the edges, but move randomly when the normal magnetic field is disturbed in some fashion.
Most of this research is still under-way and new discoveries may give us different explanations about how animals sense the Earth's magnetic field. Yet, it is certain that all varieties of creatures, cows included, seem to be able to sense the Earth's weak yet significant magnetic field.
What about you? Can you feel North?
Eutrophication: Agricultural run-off rich in fertilizers stimulates rampant growth of algae.
Courtesy NASA
Human populations effect lakes
Human sewage and fertilizer runoff effects the health of lakes. It often causes huge algal blooms, kills fish, and creates other problems.
Long term study of "cultural eutrophication" released
For 37 years researchers have examined the best ways to control this "cultural eutrophication" process of lakes by varying the levels of phosphorous and nitrogen added to the lake.
After completing one of the longest running experiments ever done on a lake, researchers from the University of Alberta, University of Minnesota and the Freshwater Institute, contend that nitrogen control, in which the European Union and many other jurisdictions around the world are investing millions of dollars, is not effective and in fact, may actually increase the problem of cultural eutrophication.
Time to rethink current practices for healthy lakes
"David Schindler, professor of ecology at the University of Alberta, and one of the leading water researchers in the world, wants to change current practice in controlling nitrogen runoff by stating that
"Controlling nitrogen does not correct the polluted lakes, and in fact, may actually aggravate the problem and make it worse."
This study done by the University of Alberta, University of Minnesota and the Freshwater Institute appears in the journal, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Source: PhysOrg.com
Getting stoned: Here's an array of shapes and sizes of kidney stones. Researchers say global warming will lead to an increase in the production of the little buggers in our bodies.
Courtesy Trevor BlakeIt’s going after polar bears and ice sheets. It’s threatening glaciers and coastal cities. Now, global warming has is setting it’s evil intentions against your kidneys.
That’s the conclusion a group of scientists announced yesterday. Increases in global temperatures could lead to an increase in kidney stones.
Having had more than my share of bouts with those pesky stones, that alone is scaring me straight to reduce my carbon footprint and do my part to reduce global climate change.
A kidney stone forms from salts that crystallize inside the kidney. That process speeds up when bodies become dehydrated. As the stones grow and move through the urinary tract, they can cause enormous (and I mean enormous) pain until it passes out through urination. The bigger the stone gets, the greater the discomfort. About 12 percent of men and seven percent of women in the U.S. will experience a bout of kidney stones in their life.
What the scientists announced this week is that warm states in the southeastern U.S. have a 50 percent higher rate of kidney stone cases than in the northeast.
Warm weather and dehydration are two factors that can accelerate kidney stone production, the researchers said. They’re seeing an unusually high rate of kidney stones among soldiers serving in the heat of Iraq.
On the flip side, drinking lots of water and staying cool can help reduce kidney stone risks, the scientists added. Kidney stone rates have been on the rise in the U.S. since 1976
So what do you think? Is there a connection between hot weather and kidney stones? Do you have a great kidney stone story to share? Ever see the Seinfeld episode where Kramer passes a kidney stone at the circus? Share your thoughts about kidney stones and/or global warming here with other Buzzers.
Ta-ta tuatara?
in Diversity of Organisms, The Water Cycle, Weather and Climate, and Biological Populations Change Over Time
Going, going, gone?: Will global warming doom the tuatara?
Courtesy Andrew_mrt1976
The tuatara looks like a lizard, but it ain’t. It actually split off from the lizard family tree some 200 million years ago, frolicked with the dinosaurs, and is considered a “living fossil.”
How much longer it will go on living is a matter of some debate. Restricted to a few small islands off New Zealand, the tuatara has long been classified as a vulnerable species. But some researchers feel it faces a new threat: global warming.
Many reptile reproductive systems are tuned to temperature. If the weather is warm, a male hatches. If the climate is cold, the egg produces a female. Some researchers fear that warming temperatures will lead to nothing but male tuataras within 75 years, ending the species’ 200-million-year run.
Most of the article is hidden behind a subscription wall, so I don’t know if the researchers ever get around to explaining how the tuatara survived the much, much warmer temperatures of the Mesozoic, and the much, much cooler temperatures of the Ice Ages, without going extinct then, too. But I’m sure it’s a beautiful explanation, though.
Lighting a backfire
Courtesy LouAngeli2008
As fires continue to rage in the forests of California, I thought I would introduce you to some of the people trying to control them. Smokejumpers are the logical people to start with as they are usually the first on the ground.
Smokejumpers are the elite forces of the US forestry department. Many fires begin in locations inaccessible to the standard means of transportation (trucks, helicopters, or by foot). These firefighters arrive by plane and parachute into remote areas. Often their landing site is the top of a tree or a boulder field. Their kevlar suits provide some protection but their skill set includes tree climbing, practiced falling and general hardiness.
In the beginning, jumpers were required to be unmarried without dependents. They had to be a bit reckless to be able to agree to jump out of a plane into a fire area! Despite the inherent danger of jumping, there have been relatively few fatalities in their long history. Jumping began in the late 1930s as flight technology and airplanes became more sophisticated. During the war, many of the jumpers were conscientious objectors to WWII. In 1981 the first women were allowed into the program. Today there are 9 active bases in the West but they serve fires from Alaska to the North East.
The physical requirements... 7 pull ups, 25 push-ups, 45 sit-ups, and a 1.5 mile run completed in under 11 minutes---all done in one session with a 5 minute break between each activity. So, I am pretty much disqualified right off the bat with the pull ups and even if I were to manage, the running would definitely eliminate me. I view running as a self destructive behavior (who would put themselves through that? sorry El). You must also be mentally and emotionally stable--that is a requirement! A smokejumper’s pack often weighs upwards of 100 pounds...and you have no ride out, you must hike or hitchhike in (after landing) and out of the fire. To see a complete list of physical requirements (including height and weight) check out the West Yellowstone smokejumper website.
What they do : After landing and recovering their gear (which is dropped from the plane in (hopefully) a relatively similar location to where they land) the crew sets out towards the fire. They carry no water save for their thermoses. They control the fire by either creating a fireline/firebreak, a swath of land around the edge of the fire cleared of any brush or fuel that could feed the fire, or they light a backfire . Backfires act much like a fireline/firebreak in that they burn towards the oncoming fire. By doing so, they remove the fuel the fire needs to continue burning. Only if the jumpers are unable to contain the fire are reinforcements called to the scene. Jumpers direct helicopters to drop water on hot spots and systematically work their way through the burn site feeling the ground to make sure that there will be no flare-ups. They can leave when the fire is controlled or fresh firefighters take-over, often times many hours after they first jumped from the plane.
Be sure to check out the links below. Jumpers work from June-Oct so those of you looking for adventure with an extremely selective and tight-knit group, smokejumping could be for you.
http://www.fs.fed.us/fire/people/smokejumpers/
http://www.fs.fed.us/r1/gallatin/fire/wyifc/main.htm
The Sun in more active times: Sunspot activity, which is linked to weather and other phenomena on Earth, peaked in 2001. But for the last two years there’s been almost nothing.
Courtesy NASA
Occasionally, intense magnetic activity in the Sun creates sunspots, dark regions on the surface of the Sun. Sunspot activity rises and falls roughly every 11 years – the last maximum was in 2001, and activity slowly fell off to zero by 2006.
And since then…almost nothing. Scientists had expected sunspot activity to start increasing by now, but it hasn’t. No one knows why, or when the cycle will pick up again.
Why is this important?
Sunspots, created by intense magnetic activity, are associated with solar flares, enormous streams of high-energy particles sent shooting out into the Solar System. These play havoc with satellites and other electronic communication. So, no sunspots in this case would be a good thing.
Solar flares also create the beautiful northern and southern lights. In this case, no sunspots is a bad thing.
Perhaps most important, sunspots seem to be an indicator of solar activity. And low activity can mean lower temperatures here on Earth. The Sun once went 50 years without producing any spots – from 1650 to 1700 – and these years were some of the coldest in recorded history. Today they are known as the little Ice Age.
Are we on the brink of a new Ice Age? It’s wayyyy to early to tell. But scientists are keeping an eye on the Sun, to see if it reveals any clues.
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