2005 hurricane season summary map
(Image courtesy National Hurricane Center)
Please contact us if you have questions about the rights on this image.
Your Comments, Thoughts, Questions, Ideas
Science Buzz and all related activitiesThe work on this site is © copyright
Science Museum of Minnesota, 2004-2008,
except where otherwise noted.
Copyright Information
Science Museum of Minnesota, 2004-2008,
except where otherwise noted.
Copyright Information
where are the hurricanes for 2006 predicted to go this year?
Scientists can't really predict where the hurricanes will go, only the likelihood of them happening and their intensity, and the likelihood of them making landfall. And all of the predictions are statistical probabilities only, which means they can and do fail. They do know, however, that the surface water temperature is cooler than it was last year; that's good, since warm water is a key player in hurricane development.
(In fact, last year's predictions were way off. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted 12-18 tropical storms; there were 28. They predicted 7-9 hurricanes; there were 15. And NOAA predicted that 3-5 would be "major"; instead 7 reached that level.)
The models suggest that 2006 will be an unusually active hurricane season, although not as tough as 2005, and that "the probability of US major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 55% above the long-period average." For more, follow the posts on this thread.
Here's news about the latest prediction from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). And the National Hurricane Center.
Oh, no major Atlantic hurricanes struck the continental US this year.
Where's Al Gore to foment that man-made emissions are the reason for such a calm hurricane season?
YAWN.
What a clown, that Al.
Well, while I will agree with you that Al Gore is pretty good at hyping things out of proportion in this case he is backed up by science that is beginning the show a link between Global Warming and increased storm strength.
This article from Richard A, Kerr, Is Katrina a Harbinger of Still More Powerful Hurricanes? is a good read for an overview.
There is a scientific consensus and lots of evidence that Global Warming is real and caused by human activities. However the study of this effect on storm strength is just beginning. No one year will tell us anything on its own.
You're obviously free to hold whatever opinion you like on Al Gore.
But here are two things to keep in mind:
A single season does not prove or disprove anything about climate. Climate, by definition, is the average pattern of precipitation, temperature, humidity, sunshine, wind velocity, etc., for a particular place over a long period of time. So one very hot year, or one very active hurricane season, does not prove global warming (or humans' contribution to global warming), and one cool year or calm hurricane season doesn't prove the opposite, either. Most climatologists agree that they are seeing a pattern of global warming. While there may be some disagreement as to the CAUSE of that warming, the scientific community generally accepts global warming as a fact.
Early forecasts for the 2006 hurricane season predicted that this would be another doozy of a year. And then, every month, the forecast was downgraded. Why? There were a lot of dust storms off the coast of Africa, where most of the Atlantic hurricanes form. And, in ways that are still unclear to scientists, those storms acted to dampen hurricane activity. There were also high winds in the upper atmosphere that essentially sheered off the tops of hurricanes, limiting their ability to grow or sustain themselves.
Here's a good story about hurricane research. Or type "hurricanes" into the search bar at the top right, and see what comes up.
If you're more interested in the debate over whether or not humans are impacting global warming, try:
"Global warming skepticism"
"Disagreeing scientists"
"Global warming: the debate continues"
"Have you seen Al Gore's movie, 'An Inconvenient Truth'?"
And those are just the posts that highlight the debate. If you search Science Buzz for "global warming," you'll turn up many, many more posts.
Post new comment