Where have all the sunspots gone?
The Sun in more active times: Sunspot activity, which is linked to weather and other phenomena on Earth, peaked in 2001. But for the last two years there’s been almost nothing.
Courtesy NASA
Occasionally, intense magnetic activity in the Sun creates sunspots, dark regions on the surface of the Sun. Sunspot activity rises and falls roughly every 11 years – the last maximum was in 2001, and activity slowly fell off to zero by 2006.
And since then…almost nothing. Scientists had expected sunspot activity to start increasing by now, but it hasn’t. No one knows why, or when the cycle will pick up again.
Why is this important?
Sunspots, created by intense magnetic activity, are associated with solar flares, enormous streams of high-energy particles sent shooting out into the Solar System. These play havoc with satellites and other electronic communication. So, no sunspots in this case would be a good thing.
Solar flares also create the beautiful northern and southern lights. In this case, no sunspots is a bad thing.
Perhaps most important, sunspots seem to be an indicator of solar activity. And low activity can mean lower temperatures here on Earth. The Sun once went 50 years without producing any spots – from 1650 to 1700 – and these years were some of the coldest in recorded history. Today they are known as the little Ice Age.
Are we on the brink of a new Ice Age? It’s wayyyy to early to tell. But scientists are keeping an eye on the Sun, to see if it reveals any clues.
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As I understand it the hypotheis of the Danish National Space Center goes as folows:
‘Active’ sun → enhanced magnetic and thermal flux = solar wind → geomagnetic shield response → less low-level clouds → less albedo (less heat reflected) → warmer climate
Less active sun → reduced magnetic and thermal flux = reduced solar wind → geomagnetic shield drops → galactic cosmic ray flux → more low-level clouds and more snow → more albedo effect (more heat reflected) → colder climate
That’s how the bulk of climate change might work, coupled with (modulated by) sunspot peak frequency there are cycles of global warming and cooling like waves in the ocean. When the waves are closely spaced, the planets warm; when the waves are spaced farther apart, the planets cool
A paper from the Astronomical Society of Australia supports the theory that low Sun activity will mean lower temperatures on Earth.
NASA scientist David Hathaway says that the lack of sunspots is nothing unusual. While the solar minimum has lasted longer than average, it is still within the normal range.
I use the solar cycles to predict the climate for the year. In my locale, some years are better for growing corn than others and that is how I make recomendations to my father as to what to plant in his vegetable garden. I was looking at the history of solar cyles and noticed that the 20th centrury had more sunspots than the 19th century. This has led me to conclude that the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere, is more of an anomoly of global warming than a cause. (there is more decay to give off carbon dioxide when the temperatures are higher) 5000 years ago there was a global warming event but there was no industry to cause it. Some say that the cause was vocanism, but I have not seen the figures on it. Yes global warming is occuring but we cant do anything about it.
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