My personal theory is that the candidate with the stranger middle name will win. I just checked the last 100 years of US Presidential elections, and found that in 25 elections, the stranger middle name has won 13 -- more than half. The more normal middle name won only 5 times, and 7 times it was a toss-up.
For example:
2000 George WALKER Bush over Al ARNOLD Gore
1996 William JEFFERSON Clinton over Robert JOSEPH Dole
1988 George HERBERT WALKER Bush over Michael STANLEY Dukakis
1984 Ronald WILSON Regan over Walter FREDERICK Mondale
1980 Ronald WILSON Regan over James EARL Carter
1972 Richard MILHOUSE Nixon over George STANLEY McGovern
And then the all-time powerhouse, Franklin DELANO Roosevelt, who neatly dispatched Thomas EDMUND Dewey, Wendell LEWIS Winkie, and Herbert CLARK Hoover -- though he got a run for his money from Alfred MOSSMAN Landon.
There are exceptions, of course. Gerald RUDOLPH Ford somehow succumbed to James EARL Carter, and oddest of all, Dwight DAVID Eisenhower -- easily the most "normal" middle name of the last century -- managed to beat Adlai EWING Stevenson not once, but twice!
Then there are the toss-ups. 2004 was so very close because it pitted George WALKER Bush against John FORBES Kerry. Richard MILHOUSE Nixon had to face John FITZGERALD Kennedy and, later, Hubert HORATIO Humphrey in two of our nation's closest elections. But the all-time champ, for my money, was 1920: Warren GAMALIEL Harding vs John MIDDLETON Cox.
But seriously, the issues facing our country are so serious, and party divisions so deep, that I doubt race or sex will be deciding factors for a significant number of voters.
Let's see... Barack HUSSEIN Obama, Hillary DIANE Rodham Clinton, William BLAINE Richardson, John REID Edwards, Joesph ROBINETTE Biden... vs. John SIDNEY McCain, Rudolph WILLIAM Guliani, Condoleeza NO MIDDLE NAME Rice, Newton LEROY Gingrich, Willard MITT Romney...this could get very interesting!


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