2008 Hurricane predictions are in
in Earth and Space Science, Physical Science, History and Nature of Science, Math, The Water Cycle, Weather and Climate, and Forces of Nature
Noted hurricane forecaster Dr. William Gray has offered up his 2008 Atlantic hurricane season predictions. (The season begins on June 1 and runs through November 30.)
Hurricane Katrina, 8/29/05: This image was taken by NOAA's Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES).
Courtesy NOAA
Gray's team, working out of Colorado State University, is predicting an above-normal season, with 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes (category 3 storms or higher). Why? A La Nina pattern creates cool water conditions in the Pacific and warm sea surface temperatures in the eastern Atlantic. Warm sea surface temperatures are critical to the formation of hurricanes.
What's "above average"? An average hurricane season produces about 10 tropical storms and 6 hurricanes. In 2007, 14 tropical storms formed, and 6 of those strengthened into hurricanes. But 2005, of course, was a record-shattering year, with 28 storms, including Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.
Here's the Science Buzz feature on hurricanes.
Buzz thread on Hurricane Katrina, started on 8/29/2005.
Buzz thread on Hurricane Rita, started on 9/22/2005.
Buzz thread on the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season
Buzz thread on the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season
Do you know about the 1938 hurricane that crashed into New England?
Share your natural disaster stories.
And, lastly, here are the hurricane names for 2008:
- Arthur
- Bertha
- Cristobal
- Dolly
- Edouard
- Fay
- Gustav
- Hanna
- Ike
- Josephine
- Kyle
- Laura
- Marco
- Nana
- Omar
- Paloma
- Rene
- Sally
- Teddy
- Vicky
- and Wilfred
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Aw darn.....no hurricanes to be named "Thor" again this year. They never pick that name.
Come on Thor! You've already got a corner on the thunder market; what more do you want? Paul Douglas's job?
cool names, but no so cool when it hits....
Why is it keep going up each year but the storms go down for the count but now they are just starting to get stronger its nerve wrecking
as a louisiana person, I am very concerned about the hurricanes predicted this year. are we in for another season as 2005 when our state was devastated by first katrina and then rita? as a rule we only get hit every other year by the storms. last year was very quiet for us along the gulf. are we in for a rock year this year? I pray not. those people who live up north don't know the magnitude of these storms. i pray that we are spared this year. we can't fight nature and we can't stop it although both are being worked on. i just pray that we take heed to warnings, keep our eyes and ears open,and prepare for what 's to come.
Forcasts change all the time its just a prediction. I live down here and these storms are, have been, and will always be, around. At least its not an Earthquake....Oh wait those have been around a long time as well...
I think Bertha is gonna be a big storm. BIG BERTHA IS COMING! YA"LL look out now. It is always the female storms that are bad.
One of the reasons the Myanmar cyclone (a hurricane in Asia)was so devastating was that the mangrove swamps there have been removed to build shrimp farms. As with Katrina, the storm was worse because the
native vegetation wasn't there to moderate the storm surge.
NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) forecast also predicts an above-average 2008 season...
This article argues that hurricane predictions have no predictive value, and that emergency management teams do not take them into account when making plans for the year.
Blogger Brandan Loy discusses
the value and accuracy of hurricane season predictions.
Bertha has officially become a hurricane, and, true to her name, she's getting bigger. It looks like Bertha will become a category 2 hurricane within the next 12 hours before weakening again in a day or two.
Also, on July 7, 1996, another hurricane Bertha formed over the Atlantic. How about that? July 7, 2020—mark it.
New forecast: Bertha is now predicted to become a category 3 storm, but its path is still uncertain. A category 3 classification would make Bertha a "major" storm--the first of the year, and one of four predicted by Colorado State.
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